NFL betting isn’t just about picking that one-off winner. If you want long-term success, understanding key numbers in point spreads is crucial.
Here’s some useful information – due to various factors such as the scoring system and format of NFL games, the numbers 3, 7, and 10 hold significant value because they represent the most common margins of victory in professional football.
Bettors who ignore these numbers risk making inefficient wagers, while those who account for them can gain an edge. Let’s examine why these key numbers matter and how they should influence your betting strategy.
Why Key Numbers Matter in NFL Betting
Point spreads exist to create balanced action between teams, but football isn’t like other sports. Scoring is structured around increments of three (field goals) and seven (touchdowns with extra points), making some final scores far more likely than others. That’s where key numbers come into play.
The most frequent margins of victory in NFL games are historically most often 3 points, followed by 7 and 10. If you can bet on or against these numbers at the right times, you improve your chances of winning over the long run.
Paying attention to line movement and the latest NFL news is key, as injuries and coaching changes can shift spreads – and recognizing these shifts early can help you secure the best value before oddsmakers adjust.
The Importance of 3 in NFL Spreads
A three-point spread is the most common number in NFL betting. That’s because games often come down to a last-second field goal, making a three-point victory a frequent outcome.
If a favorite is listed at -3, the sportsbook is essentially predicting a tight game. In this case, getting a line of -2.5 is far more valuable than -3. A bet at -2.5 means a field-goal win covers the spread, while a push occurs at exactly -3. On the flip side, if you’re betting an underdog, getting +3.5 instead of +3 is significant. That extra half-point turns a loss into a win if the game finishes with a three-point difference.
Because three is such a critical number, sportsbooks often adjust the juice (betting odds) rather than moving a line from 3 to 2.5 or 3.5. For example, instead of shifting the spread, they might change the odds from -110 to -120 to discourage bettors from taking the favorable side. Understanding these small changes can help you find value.
Why 7 Is the Second Most Important Number
After three, seven (a touchdown and extra point) the next most common margin of victory. When a team scores six and successfully kicks the extra point, they gain a full seven points—making this a frequent final margin.
Similar to how half-points matter with a three-point spread, a -6.5 line is much stronger than -7 for favorites. If you take a team at -6.5, a win by a touchdown secures the bet. At -7, you only push if that happens. On the underdog side, getting +7.5 instead of +7 provides a key advantage, turning a loss into a win if the final score lands on 7.
Like with three-point spreads, sportsbooks often adjust odds rather than moving off seven because of how frequently it lands. If you see a line move from -7 to -6.5 or +7 to +7.5, it’s often worth taking advantage of the extra value.
The Role of 10 in NFL Betting
While not as critical as three or seven, ten is another significant number in spread betting. It represents a common two-score lead, often resulting from a touchdown (and extra point) and field goal (two points).
NFL teams playing with a lead tend to protect their advantage rather than aggressively pursue more points. If a team is ahead by 10 late in the game, they often focus on clock management rather than scoring. This dynamic makes 10 a frequent margin of victory.
When betting a favorite, -9.5 is preferable to -10, just as -10.5 is less favorable than -10. Conversely, underdogs at +10.5 gain value compared to +10. Half-points matter, and getting the right number can make the difference between winning and losing a bet.
Using Key Numbers to Your Advantage
Now that we’ve covered why these numbers matter, how should they shape your betting strategy?
- Shop for the Best Line – Not all sportsbooks offer the same spreads or odds, so shopping around can be the difference between winning and pushing—or losing outright. Even a half-point shift matters, especially around key numbers like 3 and 7. For example, the NFL odds by FanDuel might list a favorite at -2.5 while another sportsbook has them at -3. Taking -2.5 increases your chances of covering if the game is decided by a field goal. These small differences add up over time, making line shopping essential for long-term success.
- Pay Attention to Line Movement – Oddsmakers adjust lines based on betting action. If a line is shifting toward or away from a key number, it signals how the market is reacting. If a favorite moves from -3 to -3.5, you’re losing value. But if it moves from -3 to -2.5, you gain an edge.
- Consider Buying Half-Points – Many sportsbooks allow bettors to buy a half-point on a spread. If a team is -3, paying extra to move the line to -2.5 can be worth it, as it turns a potential push into a win. The same logic applies for underdogs at +3.5 instead of +3.
- Watch for Public Betting Trends – Casual bettors often favor round numbers without understanding their significance. If heavy action is coming in on a team at -3.5, the line might drop to -3. Waiting for this movement can provide a better betting position.
- Be Wary of Odd Number Adjustments – If a spread sits at 2.5 or 3.5 for an extended period, it usually means sportsbooks are reluctant to move it because they know how critical 3 is. The same goes for 6.5 or 7. Recognizing when a line refuses to budge can indicate value.
Gaining an Edge With Key Numbers
In NFL spread betting, numbers aren’t random—they shape the entire market. The margins of 3, 7, and 10 dominate outcomes, making them crucial for bettors who want an edge. Small changes, like getting an extra half-point, can be the difference between winning and losing over a season.
Understanding how sportsbooks manipulate lines around these key numbers helps you make smarter bets and avoid costly mistakes. Whether you’re backing a favorite or an underdog, focusing on these numbers can give you a real advantage.
